Does the compiler recognise that another copy is unneeded?
Indeed it does. The compiler is performing copy/move elision. That is the only exception to the so called "as-if" rule, and it allows the compiler (under some circumstances, like the one in your example) to elide calls to the copy or move constructor of a class even if those have side effects.
Per paragraph 12.8/31 of the C++11 Standard:
When certain criteria are met, an implementation is allowed to omit the copy/move construction of a class
object, even if the constructor selected for the copy/move operation and/or the destructor for the object
have side effects. In such cases, the implementation treats the source and target of the omitted copy/move
operation as simply two different ways of referring to the same object, and the destruction of that object
occurs at the later of the times when the two objects would have been destroyed without the optimization.
This elision of copy/move operations, called copy elision, is permitted in the following circumstances (which
may be combined to eliminate multiple copies):
— in a return
statement in a function with a class return type, when the expression is the name of a
non-volatile automatic object (other than a function or catch-clause parameter) with the same cv-unqualified
type as the function return type, the copy/move operation can be omitted by constructing
the automatic object directly into the function’s return value
— [...]
— when a temporary class object that has not been bound to a reference (12.2) would be copied/moved
to a class object with the same cv-unqualified type, the copy/move operation can be omitted by
constructing the temporary object directly into the target of the omitted copy/move
— [...]
With GCC you can try using the -fno-elide-constructor
compilation flag to suppress this optimization and see how the compiler would behave when no copy elision occurs.