This error means you've forgotten to apply the ColdFusion 10 Mandatory Update which updates the certificate used to validate install packages.
From Adobe's website:
All ColdFusion updates are now signed with the new code signing
certificate because of a code signing certificate revocation. This
mandatory Update ensures that your current installation of ColdFusion
10 is updated with the new code signing certificate. This update is
also required for proper functioning of the auto update functionality
in ColdFusion 10. Adobe strongly recommends that you apply this
update.
Once the update has been installed (you can find the JAR install instructions here) the service will be restarted and you will be able to apply subsequent updates via the ColdFusion administrator.
Edit:
Run the command prompt as Administrator:
Navigate to your jar file, and run the following command to run jar file:
D:\>java -jar cf10_mdt_updt.jar