As some others have suggested ("apples and oranges"), I see these two techniques as orthogonal. The underlying assumption here seems to be that one will choose one or the other: we'll either use locking and shared resources or we'll use message passing, and that one renders the other unnecessary, or perhaps the other is even unavailable.
Much like, say, a metacircular evaluator, it's not obvious which are the real primitives here. For instance, in order to implement message passing, you're probably going to need atomic CAS and particular memory visibility semantics, or maybe some locking and shared state. One can implement atomic operations in terms of locks, or one can implement locks in terms of atomic operations (as Java does in its java.util.concurrent.locks
types).
Likewise, though admittedly a stretch, one could implement locking with message passing. Asking which one performs better doesn't make much sense in general, because that's really more a question about which are built in terms of which. Most likely, the one that's at the lower level can be driven better by a capable programmer than the one built on top—as has been the case with manual transmission cars until recently (quite a debate there too).
Usually the message-passing approach is lauded not for better performance, but rather for safety and convenience, and it's usually sold by denying the programmer control of locking and shared resources. As a result, it bets against programmer capability; if the programmer can't acquire a lock, he can't do it poorly and slow the program down. Much like a debate concerning manual memory management and garbage collection, some will claim to be "good drivers," making the most of manual control; others—especially those implementing and promoting use of a garbage collector—will claim that in the aggregate, the collector can do a better job than "not-so-good drivers" can with manual management.
There's no absolute answer. The difference here will lie with the skill level of the programmers, not with the tools they may wield.