The only way to know which is better is to profile each. The result will change drastically from use case to use case, from one cpu to another, from one arch to another, from one year to another. What might be best today might not be best tomorrow. So always measure and keep measuring.
That said let me give you some of my private thoughts on this:
First: If there is no contention it shouldn't matter what you do. The no-collision case should always be fast. If it's not then you need a different implementation tuned to the no contention case. One implementation might use fewer or faster machine instruction than the other and win but the difference should be minimal. Test, but I expect near identical results.
Next lets look at cases with (high) contention:
Again you might need an implementation tuned to the contention case. One lock mechanism isn't like the other same as lock-free methods.
- threads <= cores
It's reasonable to assume all threads will be running and do work. There might be small pauses where a thread gets interrupted but that's really the exception. This obviously will only hold true if you only have one application doing this. The threads of all cpu heavy applications add up for this scenario.
Now with a lock one thread will get the lock and work. Other threads can wait for the lock to become available and react the instant the lock becomes free. They can busy loop or for longer durations sleep, doesn't matter much. The lock limits you to 1 thread doing work and you get that with barely any cpu cycles wasted when switching locks.
On the other hand lock free data structures all fall into some try&repeat loop. They will do work and at some crucial point they will try to commit that work and if there was contention they will fail and try again. Often repeating a lot of expensive operations. The more contention there is the more wasted work there is. Worse, all that access on the caches and memory will slow down the thread that actually manages to commit work in the end. So you are not only not getting ahead faster, you are slowing down progress.
I would always go with locks with any workload that takes more cpu cycles than the lock instruction vs. the CAS (or similar) instruction a lock free implementation needs. It really doesn't take much work there leaving only trivial cases for the lock-free approach. The builtin atomic types are such a case and often CPUs have opcodes to do those atomic operations lock-free in hardware in a single instruction that is (relatively) fast. In the end the lock will use such an instruction itself and can never be faster than such a trivial case.
- threads >> cores
If you have much more threads than cores then only a fraction of them can run at any one time. It is likely a thread that sleeps will hold a lock. All other threads needing the lock will then also have to go to sleep until the lock holding thread wakes up again. This is probably the worst case for locking data structures. Nobody gets to do any work.
Now there are implementations for locks (with help from the operating system) where one thread trying to acquire a lock will cause the lock holding thread to take over till it releases the lock. In such systems the waste is reduced to context switching between the thread.
There is also a problem with locks called the thundering herd problem. If you have 100 threads waiting on a lock and the lock gets freed, then depending on your lock implementation and OS support, 100 threads will wake up. One will get the lock and 99 will waste time trying to acquire the lock, fail and go back to sleep. You really don't want a lock implementation suffering from thundering herds.
Lock free data structures begin to shine here. If one thread is descheduled then the other thread will continue their work and succeed in committing the result. The thread will wake up again at some point and fail to commit it's work and retry. The waste is in the work the one descheduled thread did.
- cores < threads < 2 * cores
There is a grey zone there when the number of threads is near the number of cores. The chance the blocking thread is running remains high. But this is a very chaotic region. Results what method is better are rather random there. My conclusion: If you don't have tons of threads then try really hard to stay <= core count.
Some more thoughs:
Sometimes the work, once started, needs to be done in a specific order. If one thread is descheduled you can't just skip it. You see this in some data structures where the code will detect a conflict and one thread actually finishes the work a different thread started before it can commit it's own results. Now this is really great if the other thread was descheduled. But if it's actually running it's just wasteful to do the work twice. So data structure with this scheme really aim towards scenario 2 above.
With the amount of mobile computing done today it becomes more and more important to consider the power usage of your code. There are many ways you can optimize your code to change power usage. But really the only way for your code to use less power is to sleep. Something you hear more and more is "race to sleep". If you can make your code run faster so it can sleep earlier then you save power. But the emphasis here is on sleep earlier, or maybe I should say sleep more. If you have 2 threads running 75% of the time they might solve your problem in 75 seconds. But if you can solve the same problem with 2 threads running 50% of the time, alternating with a lock, then they take 100 seconds. But the first also uses 150% cpu power. For a shorter time, true, but 75 * 150% = 112.5 > 100 * 100%. Power wise the slower solution wins. Locks let you sleep while lock free trades power for speed.
Keep that in mind and balance your need for speed with the need to recharge your phone of laptop.